Research

Barman, N., Dhali, M.N. and Hasan, M.B., 2021. Finding Appropriate Smoothing Constant for Demand Forecasting of Private Cars in Dhaka City. International Journal of Mathematics and Computation, 32(1).

Researcher Name/Project Director/Author: Nandita Barman

Publish Status:  Submitted

Research For:  Bangabandhu Chair

Date:  01-Jan-2021

Year:  2021

Bangladesh is a developing country. Among lots of problem traffic jam is the most concern problem
in Dhaka city. Traffic jam occurs for many reasons such as narrow road size, lack of proper parking
facilities, unplanned building construction etc. But most significant reason for occurring traffic jam in
Dhaka city is plying of huge number of private cars in the road. Number of private cars is increasing
day by day which is an alarming issue. Bangladesh Road Transport Authority used only qualitative
method to predict the future demand of motor vehicle. Finding an appropriate quantitative
forecasting method for demand forecasting of private car in Dhaka city is the objective of this study.
This study tries to find out an efficient forecasting technique by finding appropriate smoothing
constant in Holt-Winter’s Exponential Smoothing method for forecasting the demand of private car
in Dhaka city. The accurateness is measured by using MAD, MAPE. Empirical results from the
study indicate that the Holt-Winter’s Multiplicative Method as the most fittingpredicting method for
the data studied

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