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Md. Mahbubul Alam

Md. Mahbubul Alam

Lecturer

Department of Economics
Faculty of Arts & Social Science (FASS)

mahbubul.alam@bup.edu.bd

BANGLADESH UNIVERSITY OF PROFESSIONALS
Mirpur Cantonment, Dhaka-1216

Biography

Greetings! This is Mahbub, an academician & philomath who is currently serving as a Lecturer in Dept. of Economics, Bangladesh University of Professionals (BUP). I am a voracious learner, a perfectionist & a pragmatic person who covets to achieve stellar success through new skill sets. I have a resilient, ebullient mind & I'm always ready to accept new challenges with alacrity. My research interests include but not limited to development economics, applied econometrics & economic modeling.

Last Updated: 12 May 2024

Education
S.S.C, মতিঝিল সরকারি বালক উচ্চ বিদ্যালয়
H.S.C, সরকারি বিজ্ঞান কলেজ
Honors, বাংলাদেশ ইউনিভার্সিটি অব প্রফেশনালস
Masters, বাংলাদেশ ইউনিভার্সিটি অব প্রফেশনালস

Last Updated: 12 May 2024

Journal Publication

1.

Export Enhancing Effects of Information and Communication Technologies: Evidence from Bangladesh 

  • DOI: 
  • 10.55493/5004.v12i2.4515

  • Abstract: The study examines the impact of information and communications technology (ICT) on bilateral export flows from Bangladesh to its trading partners based on an augmented panel gravity model. It includes 108 importers of Bangladeshi goods. The sample period extends from 2000 to 2018. Primarily, we employ Pooled Ordinary Least Square (POLS) model, and we utilize Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) as an alternative estimation technique to check robustness. The findings from the OLS model indicate that ICT has positive and significant effects on Bangladesh’s bilateral export. The results from PPML also support the findings from the OLS model. Therefore, the results come out to be robust. These findings imply that by reducing trade-related costs e. g., shipping costs, market access costs, and communication and information costs, ICT growth in Bangladesh as well as in its trading partner countries enhances trade flows and therefore has a trade-boosting effect.
Keywords: Bangladesh, Bilateral exports, Gravity model, Information and communications technology, Ordinary least square , Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood.



2.

Nexus between macroeconomic factors and remittance inflow in presence of ICT penetration: a panel data analysis of Bangladesh economy

DOI: 10.1504/IJSEM.2023.10058035

Abstract: While the whole world was struggling and stumbling during the global pandemic, the economy of Bangladesh miraculously experienced a comparatively lower stagnation than its contemporaries, owing to a larger remittance inflow intertwined with the surge of ICT services. This study attempts to find the answer to this overwhelming performance considering the macroeconomic factors in host countries that are top in remittance outflow towards Bangladesh. The findings indicate significant positive effects of ICT, as well as macroeconomic factors like government expenditure, trade balance, and FDI on the remittance inflow of the recipient country. Despite being unique in perspective, the paper is confined to the usage of secondary data and limited data availability due to institutional constraints for a few countries. The paper concludes by prescribing an ICT-friendly infrastructure for both host countries and the recipient country, along with an emphasis on selected macroeconomic variables.
Keywords: remittance; ICT; macroeconomic factors; receiving country; host country; panel data; fixed effects; random effects; Bangladesh.

3.

Role of education human capital in ICT-trade relationship

DOI: 10.1504/IJEED.2024.10051654

Abstract: The study investigates how ICT affects trade because of prior effect of education human capital on ICT using gravity panel model for the period 2000‒2018 including 130 countries. First, we find positive and significant relationship between ICT use and bilateral merchandise exports flows. Second, the findings indicate that higher ICT use by both the exporting and importing country has a positive impact on exports of countries with higher education human capital. The effects of interaction between ICT and human capital on exports flows from low-and middle-income to high income countries as well as trade between low and middle-income countries are positive and significant for the exporter country. The interaction terms on trade flows involving high-income countries as exporters, in contrast, are negatively significant. For importers, interaction has positive and significant effects except trade flows from high-income to low-and middle-income countries, where it asserts positive but insignificant effect. Keywords: education human capital; ICT; gravity model; panel data; bilateral exports; high-income countries; low and middle-income countries; Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood; interaction effects.
Keywords: education human capital; ICT; gravity model; panel data; bilateral exports; high-income countries; low and middle-income countries; Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood; interaction effects.

4.

Forecasting Monthly Inflation in Bangladesh: A Seasonal Autoregressive Moving Average (SARIMA) Approach
Doi: 10.1991/jefa.v7i2.a61

Abstract: The objective of this study is to forecast the trend of inflation in Bangladesh by utilizing past inflation data. To achieve this objective, we employed the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model which is an extension of the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. Monthly inflation data used for forecasting were derived from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data obtained from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) database, covering the period from January 2010 to January 2023. Our analysis reveals that the SARIMA (2,0,0)×(1,0,1)12 model is the most appropriate fit. Based on this finding, we predicted the inflation trend in Bangladesh from February 2023 to December 2024. A comparison of our predicted values with the actual values indicates a high degree of correlation between the two. Although a few discrepancies were observed, they did not undermine our prediction since the parameters of the model lay within the 95% confidence interval.

Keywords: C51, C53, E31, E37.

JEL Classification: Inflation, Seasonality, SARIMA, Bangladesh.

Last Updated: 12 May 2024

Researchs

1. International Trade & Business, Development economics, Applied econometrics & Economic modeling.

Last Updated: 12 May 2024

Awards

1.

  • 'Vice-Chancellor Gold Medal' for academic excellence [Received on 22 February 2023]
  • 'Dean's Letter of Appreciation' Awarded by Dean, FASS, BUP for academic excellence [Received on 19 February 2019 and 30 September 2019]
  • 'Chancellor Scholarship' for academic excellence [Received in 2019]
  • Champion in 'ECONMASTER 1.0' (2019) book-based quiz competition [Arranged by BUP Economics Club]
  • First Runner-up in 'ECONMASTER 1.0' (2019) Data Analysis competition [Arranged by BUP Economics Club]


Last Updated: 12 May 2024

Courses

1.

Statistics for Economics-I (ECON-1104)
Statistics for Economics-II (ECON-1203)
Money & Banking (ECON-1205)
Development Economics (ECON-2303)
Industrial Economics (ECON-2405)
Econometrics-I (ECON-2406)
International Economics-I (ECON-3502)
Environmental Economics (ECON-3606)

Last Updated: 12 May 2024

S.S.C, মতিঝিল সরকারি বালক উচ্চ বিদ্যালয়
H.S.C, সরকারি বিজ্ঞান কলেজ
Honors, বাংলাদেশ ইউনিভার্সিটি অব প্রফেশনালস
Masters, বাংলাদেশ ইউনিভার্সিটি অব প্রফেশনালস

Last Updated: 12 May 2024

1.

Export Enhancing Effects of Information and Communication Technologies: Evidence from Bangladesh 

  • DOI: 
  • 10.55493/5004.v12i2.4515

  • Abstract: The study examines the impact of information and communications technology (ICT) on bilateral export flows from Bangladesh to its trading partners based on an augmented panel gravity model. It includes 108 importers of Bangladeshi goods. The sample period extends from 2000 to 2018. Primarily, we employ Pooled Ordinary Least Square (POLS) model, and we utilize Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) as an alternative estimation technique to check robustness. The findings from the OLS model indicate that ICT has positive and significant effects on Bangladesh’s bilateral export. The results from PPML also support the findings from the OLS model. Therefore, the results come out to be robust. These findings imply that by reducing trade-related costs e. g., shipping costs, market access costs, and communication and information costs, ICT growth in Bangladesh as well as in its trading partner countries enhances trade flows and therefore has a trade-boosting effect.
Keywords: Bangladesh, Bilateral exports, Gravity model, Information and communications technology, Ordinary least square , Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood.



2.

Nexus between macroeconomic factors and remittance inflow in presence of ICT penetration: a panel data analysis of Bangladesh economy

DOI: 10.1504/IJSEM.2023.10058035

Abstract: While the whole world was struggling and stumbling during the global pandemic, the economy of Bangladesh miraculously experienced a comparatively lower stagnation than its contemporaries, owing to a larger remittance inflow intertwined with the surge of ICT services. This study attempts to find the answer to this overwhelming performance considering the macroeconomic factors in host countries that are top in remittance outflow towards Bangladesh. The findings indicate significant positive effects of ICT, as well as macroeconomic factors like government expenditure, trade balance, and FDI on the remittance inflow of the recipient country. Despite being unique in perspective, the paper is confined to the usage of secondary data and limited data availability due to institutional constraints for a few countries. The paper concludes by prescribing an ICT-friendly infrastructure for both host countries and the recipient country, along with an emphasis on selected macroeconomic variables.
Keywords: remittance; ICT; macroeconomic factors; receiving country; host country; panel data; fixed effects; random effects; Bangladesh.

3.

Role of education human capital in ICT-trade relationship

DOI: 10.1504/IJEED.2024.10051654

Abstract: The study investigates how ICT affects trade because of prior effect of education human capital on ICT using gravity panel model for the period 2000‒2018 including 130 countries. First, we find positive and significant relationship between ICT use and bilateral merchandise exports flows. Second, the findings indicate that higher ICT use by both the exporting and importing country has a positive impact on exports of countries with higher education human capital. The effects of interaction between ICT and human capital on exports flows from low-and middle-income to high income countries as well as trade between low and middle-income countries are positive and significant for the exporter country. The interaction terms on trade flows involving high-income countries as exporters, in contrast, are negatively significant. For importers, interaction has positive and significant effects except trade flows from high-income to low-and middle-income countries, where it asserts positive but insignificant effect. Keywords: education human capital; ICT; gravity model; panel data; bilateral exports; high-income countries; low and middle-income countries; Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood; interaction effects.
Keywords: education human capital; ICT; gravity model; panel data; bilateral exports; high-income countries; low and middle-income countries; Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood; interaction effects.

4.

Forecasting Monthly Inflation in Bangladesh: A Seasonal Autoregressive Moving Average (SARIMA) Approach
Doi: 10.1991/jefa.v7i2.a61

Abstract: The objective of this study is to forecast the trend of inflation in Bangladesh by utilizing past inflation data. To achieve this objective, we employed the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model which is an extension of the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. Monthly inflation data used for forecasting were derived from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data obtained from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) database, covering the period from January 2010 to January 2023. Our analysis reveals that the SARIMA (2,0,0)×(1,0,1)12 model is the most appropriate fit. Based on this finding, we predicted the inflation trend in Bangladesh from February 2023 to December 2024. A comparison of our predicted values with the actual values indicates a high degree of correlation between the two. Although a few discrepancies were observed, they did not undermine our prediction since the parameters of the model lay within the 95% confidence interval.

Keywords: C51, C53, E31, E37.

JEL Classification: Inflation, Seasonality, SARIMA, Bangladesh.

Last Updated: 12 May 2024

Last Updated: 12 May 2024

Last Updated: 12 May 2024

International Trade & Business, Development economics, Applied econometrics & Economic modeling.

Last Updated: 12 May 2024

  • 'Vice-Chancellor Gold Medal' for academic excellence [Received on 22 February 2023]
  • 'Dean's Letter of Appreciation' Awarded by Dean, FASS, BUP for academic excellence [Received on 19 February 2019 and 30 September 2019]
  • 'Chancellor Scholarship' for academic excellence [Received in 2019]
  • Champion in 'ECONMASTER 1.0' (2019) book-based quiz competition [Arranged by BUP Economics Club]
  • First Runner-up in 'ECONMASTER 1.0' (2019) Data Analysis competition [Arranged by BUP Economics Club]


Last Updated: 12 May 2024

Statistics for Economics-I (ECON-1104)
Statistics for Economics-II (ECON-1203)
Money & Banking (ECON-1205)
Development Economics (ECON-2303)
Industrial Economics (ECON-2405)
Econometrics-I (ECON-2406)
International Economics-I (ECON-3502)
Environmental Economics (ECON-3606)

Last Updated: 12 May 2024